In the News

"Rana Foroohar: Swamp Notes", Financial Times, 15 April 2024.

"What eight centuries of data tell us about interest rates", Financial Times, 11 April 2024.

"A Banking Crisis could be closer than you think", Barron's, 22 February 2024.

"Treasury Trove", GAM Investments, 12 February 2024.

"Det har varit rätt enkelt att tjäna pengar på fastigheter ", Fastightets Nytt (Swedish), 11 February 2024.

"Paul Schmelzing on real interest rates since 1310", Brad DeLong -- Grasping reality, 11 February 2024.

"The future of interest rates is more surprises", Reuters Viewpoint, 24 November 2023.

"700 år av ränta avslöjar – så blir din framtida boränta", Dagens Nyheter (Danish), 10 November 2023.

"Law of Unintended Consequences Caused the Great Bond Rout", Bloomberg Opinion, 9 October 2023.

"Negative rates -- never say never", Bloomberg News, 15 September 2023.

"The End of Zero Interest Rates", Jeff Frankel for Project Syndicate, 13 August 2023.

"A Triumvirate of Macro Mega-forces", Alliance Bernstein, Summer 2023.

"Investing to preserve purchasing power", Allianz Global Investors, July 2023.

"Russia's Farcical Mutiny is Deadly Serious for Iran, China", Bloomberg Opinion, 2 July 2023.

"Why Low Interest Rates Will Return -- Again and Again", Bloomberg / Wash Post, 30 May 2023.

"SVB and First Republic are just the first banks to fail -- if you believe 800 years of history", Marketwatch, 4 May 2023.

"The tweet and the trust collapse",, 1 May 2023.

"The March 2023 Bank interventions in long-run context...", Harvard Law Corporate Governance, 17 April 2023.

"The size of recent bank rescues is the real proof officials fear...", Irish Independent, 10 April 2023.

"That other banking mess...", Bloomberg, 29 March 2023.

"Researchers analyzed 800 years of banking crises...", Marketwatch, 28 March 2023.

"Things are only getting harder for the Fed", Financial Times, 18 March 2023.

"The Great Inflation", BBC Four, 15 March 2023.

"Forward thinking on what deep history...", McKinsey Global Institute, 15 February 2023.

"Sind die Notenbanken an den vielen Krisen schuld?" (German), Der Standard, 12 February 2023.

"Is there a financial crisis in our future?", Wall Street Journal podcast, 8 February 2023.

"Geldpolitik in Krisenzeiten: Zentralbanken als Helfer" (German), Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 7 February 2023.

"Wie die Geldpolitik den Krisenzyklus steuert" (German), Handelsblatt, 6 February 2023. 

"The Squeeze: Why AI and nuclear fusion will increase interest rates", Investors' Chronicle, 19 January 2023.

"Il Paradosso Dei Tassi" (Italian), We Wealth, 18 January 2023.

"Zinsen, Pest und Pleiten" (German), Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 23 December 2022.

"The Great Inflation of the 1500s is Echoing Eerily Today", The Economist, 20 December 2022.

"Too Much Gloom and Doom?", Willem Buiter for Project Syndicate, 12 December 2022.

"The Real Interest Rate Decline in Long Historical Perspective", NBER Digest, 1 December 2022.

"How Cold War II Could Turn Into World War III", Bloomberg Opinion, 23 October 2022.

"Higher interest rates wouldn't shock, forsooth", Financial Post, 20 October 2022.

"Since 1310 bond yields have fallen with metronomic regularity", The Economist, 6 October 2022.

"Lessons from Real Interest Rates since the 14th century", Interview with Financial History Magazine, Summer 2022.

"Auf der Suche nach dem verlorenen Zins" (German), Thomas Mayer for Flossbach Storch Research, 20 July 2022.

"Welche Zinswende? Die Zinsen sinken seit Jahrhunderten..." (German), Die Presse, 13 May 2022.

"The 800 year decline in interest rates", Narratives Podcast, 19 April 2022.

"Die unterschaetzte Zeitenwende" (German), Beyond the Obvious Podcast, 10 April 2022.

"Rara, wat zegt de rente?" (Dutch), Financieele Dagblatt, 21 February 2022.

"Nie wieder Zinsen?" (German), Beyond The Obvious Podcast, 13 February 2022.

"After Crypto's Cold Winter, expect Springtime for Web 3.0", Bloomberg Opinion, 6 February 2022.

"Inflation and Deficits don't dim the Appeal of U.S. Bonds", New York Times, 30 January 2022.

"Bereit fuer Krise 903?" (German), Institutional Money, 30 November 2021.

"The Stagnation Era", Investors' Chronicle, 25 November 2021.

"Paul Schmelzing on the long-term decline in interest rates", KC&CO Investing Podcast, 23 November 2021.

"Entirely possible that we will see low rates forever, asset manager says", CNBC, 15 November 2021.

"We are already living in a post-scarcity world", Coindesk Opinion, 27 October 2021.

"Banking-Crisis Interventions, 1257-2019", Harvard Law Corporate Governance Forum, 12 October 2021.

"Bleibt der Inflationsteufel sehr viel laenger am Leben?" (German), Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 1 October 2021.

"Interest rates and purchasing power influence the value of money", Credit Suisse Asset Management, 16 September 2021.

"Interest rates: a podcast", EABH (interview), 7 September, 2021.

"Some philosophical questions about the future of central banking", Central Banking, 1 September 2021.

"Le succès des politiques fiscales en réponse au Covid-19 montre qu'il faut..." (French), Atlantico, 9 August 2021.

"Juro baixo a perder de vista", Estadao (Brazil), 7 June 2021.

"Ces États qui aiment les taux d’intérêt négatifs" (French), Contrepoints, 8 May 2021. 

"CIO Viewpoint: rising rates - should we be worried?", CIGP, 30 March 2021.

"Inflation in the aftermath of Wars and Pandemics", Goldman Sachs Research, 25 March 2021. 

"800 ans d’histoire nous apprennent que les taux d’intérêt bas..." (French), Atlantico, 22 March 2021. 

"Mundo vive maior vaga de estímulos em 100 anos. O que pode acontecer?" (Portuguese), Expresso Portugal, 14 March 2021.

"16th century traders could have predicted negative rates", Bloomberg Opinion (interview), 13 March 2021.

"Negativzinsen: macht Euch nichts vor!" (German), Focus Online, 13 March 2021.

"Hasta La Vista, Baby", Oppenheimer Asset Management, 25 February 2021.

"Angles morts du débat sur la dette publique" (French), L'Opinion, 24 February 2021.

"700 years of Falling Interest Rates", Moncrieff Show, Newstalk (radio interview), 17 February 2021.

"Anleihen mit negativer Rendite lohnen sich" (German), Wirtschaftswoche, 2 February 2021.

"Why economics needs to wake up to ageing populations", Financial Times, 2 December 2020.

"Return of a higher yield era?", Barclays Capital, 19 November 2020.

"Moments in money: the first interest rates", Spear's Magazine, 18 November 2020.

"Does economic growth boost stock prices?", The Economist, 24 September 2020.

"Negative interest rates are becoming the new normal", Brussels Times, 23 July 2020.

"Money is getting ever cheaper" (Polish), Prawda Gazeta, 10 July 2020.

"700 ans de taux d'intérêt pour prédire l'avenir" (French), La Tribune, 8 June 2020.

"The effects of Covid-19 could deepen secular stagnation", Financial Times, 31 May 2020.

"What 700 years of falling interest rates tell us about our economic future", New Statesman, 21 May 2020.

"Inflation: Rates will remain low after the Recession", Credit Suisse, 20 May 2020.

"Kann Deutschland jetzt hohe Schulden machen?" (German), IfW Kiel Focus, 11 May 2020.

"Pandemics always influenced interest rates", Gulf News, 25 April 2020.

"If COVID-19 is Like Past Pandemics, We Could Face Decades of Economic Fallout", Forbes, 16 April 2020.

"Past pandemics had lasting effects on rates, U.S. study says", The Globe and Mail, 13 April 2020.

"Die Ökonomie des Todes" (German), Sueddeutsche Zeitung, 10 April 2020.

"The world was already slowing down long before lockdown", The Telegraph, 3 April 2020.

"Black Death Makes Us Think About Interest Rates", Bloomberg Opinion, 28 March 2020.

"Schicksalhafter Nullzins" (German), Institutional Money, March 2020.

"Kann Deutschland jetzt massiv Schulden machen?" (German), Sueddeutsche Zeitung, 24 March 2020.

"History tells us Coronavirus effect will be short and sharp", The Telegraph, 17 March 2020.

"Paul Schmelzing on the 'suprasecular' decline of global real interest rates", Macro Musings podcast (Mercatus Center), 24 February 2020.

"Finance, Bubbles, Negative Interest Rates, the What Ifs...", CFA Institute, 24 February 2020.

"Are negative interest rates here to stay?", International Banker, 19 Feburary 2020.

"Negativzinsen als Normalitaet" (German), Cicero Magazin, 17 February 2020.

"Suprasecularly speaking...", Rothschild & Co. Wealth, 29 January 2020.

"Les taux d'interet baissent...depuis un demi-millenaire" (French), Les Echos, 28 January 2020.

"Al 500 jaar op weg naar rente van 0 prozent" (Interview, Dutch), De Volkskrant, 24 January 2020.

"Der Zins sinkt schon seit dem Mittelalter", (Interview, German), Die ZEIT, 22 January 2020.

"What interest rates dating back to 1311 reveal about the global economy", Quartz, 19 January 2020.

"Negativzinsen sind unausweichliche Konsequenz der Geschichte", (Interview, German), FOCUS, 16 January 2020.

"700 års erfarenhet: Därför kommer räntorna falla ännu mer" (Swedish), Dagens Industri, 14 January 2020.

"Bond data back to the Black Death shows low rates could be here to stay", CNBC, 14 January 2020.

"Past Interest Rates and Future Growth", Project Syndicate, 13 January 2020.

"Capital in the 14th century", The Economist, 9 January 2020.

"Against secular stagnation", FT Alphaville, 8 January 2020.

"Eight centuries of history tell us interest rates will get lower and lower forever", The Telegraph, 8 January 2020.

"Rates have been falling for eight centuries – BoE research", Central Banking, 6 January 2020.

"Zwei Prozent Negativzinsen könnten in Zukunft zur Normalität werden" (German), Welt am Sonntag, 5 January 2020.

"Negative Interest Rates aren't such a Departure After All", Bloomberg Opinion, 2 January 2020.

"Claims about real rates of return", Marginal Revolution, 6 December 2019.

"Global bond bull run has reached historic levels", Financial Times, 8 September 2019.

"The suprasecular stagnation", Brad DeLong: Grasping Reality, 5 February 2019.

"A 500 year bull market shows its age", Grant's Interest Rate Observer, 25 January 2019.

"Here's what happened the last time the bond market crashed", Money Week, 10 November 2018.

"The 'suprasecular' stagnation", VoxEU, 24 May 2018.

"Gradually rising interest rates? Don't be too sure", Schroders blog, 28 March 2018.

"Medieval wisdom on when to start worrying about the bond market", Bloomberg View, 24 January 2018.

Daily shot, Wall Street Journal, 21 December 2017.

"Pode haver uma reversão dos juros" (Portuguese), Examen/Expresso (interview), December 2017.

"The Trump bear market for bonds is fast arriving", Financial Times, 4 December 2017.

"PIMCO: thoughts on global macro by Joachim Fels", 20 November 2017.

"Where are interest rates headed?", National Business Review, 17 November 2017.

"7 centuries of interest rates: there is a warning for investors in this chart", Marketwatch, 10 November 2017.

"Centuries of data warn of rapid reversals from low interest rates", Bloomberg, 7 November 2017.

"Real rates since 1311", Wall Street Journal 'Pro', 6 November 2017.

"Bond markets set for a taste of the 60s as inflation picks up", Reuters, 30 January 2017.

"How the world's biggest bond bull market could all come crashing down", Bloomberg Odd Lots podcast, 17 January 2017.

"Schmelzing: perfect storm can quickly turn bond market", Bloomberg TV, 12 January 2017.

"Schmelzing on bonds: why investors face years of losses", Bloomberg TV, 10 January 2017.

"The Market Warnings Out Of Harvard", Barron's, 4 January 2017.

"Harvard academic sees debt rout worse than 1994 'bond massacre", Bloomberg, 4 January 2017.