· “Eight centuries of global real rates, R-G, and the ‘suprasecular’ decline, 1311-2018”.
JMP version, Jan. 2022. Appendix and data replication material.
Bank of England SWP 845, Jan. 2020.
Data underlying Bank of England, SWP 845 (January 2020 version 1.2).
Book project: "Eight centuries of Global Real Interest Rates, 1311-2018" (under contract with Yale University Press).
“Banking Crises interventions, 1257-2020” (with Andrew Metrick). Full database, papers, and documentation (Sep. 2021).
(summary: NBER WP 29281)
We present a new database of banking-crisis interventions since the 13th century. The database includes 1886 interventions in 20 categories across 138 countries, covering interventions during all of the crises identified in the main banking-crisis chronologies, while also cataloguing a large number of interventions outside of those crises. The data show a gradual shift over the past centuries from the traditional interventions of a lender-of-last-resort, suspensions of convertibility, and bank holidays, towards a much more prominent role for capital injections and sweeping guarantees of bank liabilities. Furthermore, intervention frequencies and sizes suggest that the crisis problem in the financial sector has indeed reached an apex during the post-Bretton Woods era – but that such trends are part of a more deeply entrenched development that saw global intervention frequencies and sizes gradually rise since at least the late 17th century.
"Central Bank balance sheet expansions and the macroeconomy, 1587-2020" (with Moritz Schularick, Niall Ferguson, and Martin Kornejew). CEPR DP 17858 -- January 2023.
"Real Interest Rates and Risk at the Third Millennium" (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), work-in-progress.