Paul Schmelzing
Paul Schmelzing
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Assistant Prof. of Finance, Boston College, 2022-
Research Fellow, Hoover Institution Stanford, 2022-
contact:
photo: Kennevia Photography 2023.
"Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the 'suprasecular' decline, 1311-2018", Bank of England Staff Working Paper 845, Jan. 2020.
JMP version (Feb. 2022). JMP appendices and replication kit.
(Book version: Yale University Press, forthcoming).
"Long-Run Trends in Long-Maturity Real Rates, 1311-2022" (with Ken Rogoff and Barbara Rossi) -- American Economic Review (114/8), August 2024.
"Global Housing Returns, Discount Rates, and the Emergence of the Safe Asset, 1465-2024", June 2025.
"Banking-Crisis Interventions Across Time and Space" (with Andrew Metrick, Feb 2024). -- accepted, Review of Financial Studies.
"The Safety Net: Central Bank Balance Sheets and Financial Crises, 1578-2020" (with Niall Ferguson, Martin Kornejew, and Moritz Schularick), R&R at Journal of Political Economy.
"Rethinking Short-Term Real Interest Rates and Term Spreads Using Very Long Run Data", Oct 2024.
Recent: NBER SI pres, Jul 2025.
Hoover Fiscal Policy comments, April 2025.
Hoover EPWG -- "Housing and the Emergence of the Safe Asset", Nov 2024. PAPER (2025).
New: "r-g before and after the Great Wars, 1507-2023", Hoover WP, Nov. 2024.
Presentation at Hoover Monetary Policy Conference, May 12.
Presentation at IMF Annual Research Conference, Nov 11.
Recent: The Economist rates discussion.
Education, other academic appointments
Consultant, Fiscal Affairs Dept, International Monetary Fund, 2023-
One Bank visiting researcher, Bank of England, 2022-
Postdoctoral associate, Finance group, Yale SOM, 2019-2022
PhD, History, Harvard University, 2013-2019
Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, 2017-2019
Visiting researcher, Bank of England, 2016-2021
Research assistant, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, 2015-2016
BSc, Economic History, London School of Economics, 2010-2013
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