Paul Schmelzing
Paul Schmelzing
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Assistant Prof. of Finance, Boston College
Research Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford
contact:
photo: Kennevia Photography 2023.
"Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the 'suprasecular' decline, 1311-2018", Bank of England Staff Working Paper 845, Jan. 2022.
JMP version (Feb. 2022). JMP appendices and replication kit.
(Book version: Yale University Press, forthcoming).
"Long-Run Trends in Long-Maturity Real Rates, 1311-2022" (with Ken Rogoff and Barbara Rossi) -- American Economic Review (114/8), August 2024.
"The Safety Net: Central Bank Balance Sheets and Financial Crises, 1578-2020" (with Niall Ferguson, Martin Kornejew, and Moritz Schularick), R&R at Journal of Political Economy.
"Global Housing Returns, Discount Rates, and the Emergence of the Safe Asset, 1465-2024", July 2025.
Cavalcade 2025 Hoover EPWG Presentation
"Banking-Crisis Interventions Across Time and Space" (with Andrew Metrick, Oct 2025). -- Review of Financial Studies, pre-print.
"Metrick-Schmelzing Crisis Database", covering 1257-2019.
Recent: German Foreign Ministry, Policy Planning Staff, presentation.
Financial Times ranks research "among most cited by policy makers" in 2025.
NBER SI pres, Jul 2025.
Hoover Fiscal Policy comments, April 2025.
Hoover EPWG -- "Housing and the Emergence of the Safe Asset", Nov 2024. PAPER (2025).
New: "r-g before and after the Great Wars, 1507-2023".
Presentation at IMF Annual Research Conference, Nov 11.
Recent: The Economist rates discussion.
Education
Yale School of Management, Finance Group, 2019-2022
Harvard University, PhD, 2019
London School of Economics, BSc, 2013
other, memberships
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschland (CDU)
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Bank of England, Visiting Reseacher, 2016-2020
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